Gloomy or Zoomy? Throughout much of 2025, consumer surveys have noted a dour psychology; however, actual spending data tells a different story, one of willing participants. Consumers make up about 2/3rds of the economy, so monitoring consumers is self-evident.
“Black Friday” originates from retailers transitioning from operating at a loss (in the red)
to operating at a profit. In modern times, it is known for the large discounts and sales to kick off the holiday spending season. Cyber Monday, introduced as e-Commerce discounts sandwiched the weekend. Whether historical or modern, monitoring consumer activity helps craft an expectation of spending.
Unbeknownst to the dour sentiment, the number of shoppers and the dollars exchanged over the 5-day weekend surpassed a solid 2024. Such data is supported by numerous sources. The National Retail Federation (NRF), MasterCard Spending Pulse, Adobe Analytics, and the U.S. Small Business Administration all noted higher levels of spending and foot traffic. Most are recognizing high single-digit growth to lower double-digit growth, which surpasses the 3.0% inflation over the past 12 months. In other words, there is real (post-inflation) holiday spending which overcomes spenders’ downtrodden mindset.
Delving into the data has revealed some interesting trends. In-store foot traffic sets records, following a contraction in 2024. Are people rediscovering the in-person shopping experience? We’ll watch 2026 for confirmation. Online shopping traffic was even more impressive. Shopping from the comfort of one’s couch with a cup of coffee is hard to compete with. Cyber Monday, the second highest-trafficked day behind Black Friday, also posted impressive numbers.
Nearly all (96%) of those shopping over the weekend made a holiday-related purchase, spending $337.86 on average on items like gifts, holiday apparel, decorations, and other seasonal purchases. This is up from $315.56 last year and is the highest figure since 2019’s record of $361.90.1 The top gifts purchased during this period were clothing and accessories (51%), followed by toys (32%). Books and other media (28%) saw an increase from 22% last year and surpassed gift cards (26%) as the third most popular gift purchased during the weekend.1
NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31 and has forecast that holiday spending will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, with growth between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. As of Thanksgiving weekend, 84% of consumers had already begun their holiday shopping. However, similar to last year, shoppers still have a little over half (53%) of their holiday shopping remaining.1
So, what does all this mean? In short, consumers, in aggregate, may be anxious about their finances, but that’s not keeping them from expressing their appreciation for friends and family via material goods.
Happy Holidays!
1National Retail Federation
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